{
  "survivorship": {
    "parcels_2015": 109838,
    "parcels_2025": 114398,
    "common": 107029,
    "new_in_2025": 7369,
    "gone_from_2015": 2809,
    "new_in_tad_pct": 75.2,
    "new_not_in_tad_pct": 24.8,
    "note": "New parcels often represent subdivisions, new construction, or condo plats \u2014 these would HELP the TAD case if included, so excluding them is conservative for our finding."
  },
  "bootstrap_ci": {
    "distance_bands": [
      {
        "band": "0-2 mi",
        "tad_median": 130.4,
        "tad_ci": [
          128.8,
          131.8
        ],
        "tad_n": 22773,
        "non_tad_median": 154.9,
        "non_tad_ci": [
          152.0,
          156.3
        ],
        "non_tad_n": 285,
        "diff": -24.5,
        "diff_ci": [
          -26.4,
          -22.0
        ],
        "p_value": 6.5198041057090705e-06
      },
      {
        "band": "2-3 mi",
        "tad_median": 89.1,
        "tad_ci": [
          89.1,
          89.2
        ],
        "tad_n": 16307,
        "non_tad_median": 217.1,
        "non_tad_ci": [
          200.4,
          238.6
        ],
        "non_tad_n": 8553,
        "diff": -128.0,
        "diff_ci": [
          -149.5,
          -111.8
        ],
        "p_value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "band": "3-4 mi",
        "tad_median": 79.1,
        "tad_ci": [
          78.0,
          81.3
        ],
        "tad_n": 4957,
        "non_tad_median": 461.8,
        "non_tad_ci": [
          452.4,
          469.6
        ],
        "non_tad_n": 11112,
        "diff": -382.7,
        "diff_ci": [
          -390.6,
          -372.9
        ],
        "p_value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "band": "4-6 mi",
        "tad_median": 92.5,
        "tad_ci": [
          90.5,
          95.4
        ],
        "tad_n": 4962,
        "non_tad_median": 115.3,
        "non_tad_ci": [
          113.7,
          117.8
        ],
        "non_tad_n": 18974,
        "diff": -22.9,
        "diff_ci": [
          -26.1,
          -19.4
        ],
        "p_value": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "overall": {
      "tad_median": 109.1,
      "tad_ci": [
        108.1,
        109.9
      ],
      "non_tad_median": 133.6,
      "non_tad_ci": [
        131.9,
        136.4
      ],
      "diff": -24.5,
      "diff_ci": [
        -27.6,
        -22.4
      ],
      "mann_whitney_z": -42.493,
      "mann_whitney_p": null,
      "tad_n": 49208,
      "non_tad_n": 44580
    }
  },
  "percentiles": {
    "overall": {
      "p10_tad": 25.44022514666244,
      "p10_non_tad": 44.45883280367014,
      "p10_diff": -19.018607657007703,
      "p25_tad": 63.67469879518072,
      "p25_non_tad": 73.69407315411623,
      "p25_diff": -10.019374358935508,
      "p50_tad": 109.07460817840747,
      "p50_non_tad": 133.6194620657248,
      "p50_diff": -24.54485388731733,
      "p75_tad": 233.71335504885994,
      "p75_non_tad": 500.0,
      "p75_diff": -266.28664495114003,
      "p90_tad": 591.358024691358,
      "p90_non_tad": 751.4894720913138,
      "p90_diff": -160.13144739995585,
      "pct_negative_tad": 3.2677613396195735,
      "pct_negative_non_tad": 1.5926424405563033
    },
    "distance_bands": [
      {
        "p10_tad": 10.779617236116005,
        "p10_non_tad": 125.91280984835835,
        "p10_diff": -115.13319261224234,
        "p25_tad": 78.77389584706658,
        "p25_non_tad": 140.8661025385764,
        "p25_diff": -62.092206691509816,
        "p50_tad": 130.37681159420288,
        "p50_non_tad": 154.87028879099364,
        "p50_diff": -24.493477196790764,
        "p75_tad": 271.1428571428571,
        "p75_non_tad": 167.78523489932886,
        "p75_diff": 103.35762224352825,
        "p90_tad": 591.8448091227458,
        "p90_non_tad": 192.090911514913,
        "p90_diff": 399.7538976078328,
        "pct_negative_tad": 3.750054889562201,
        "pct_negative_non_tad": 1.4035087719298245,
        "band": "0-2 mi",
        "tad_n": 22773,
        "non_tad_n": 285
      },
      {
        "p10_tad": 37.29333641404807,
        "p10_non_tad": 51.99523525908278,
        "p10_diff": -14.701898845034712,
        "p25_tad": 62.8095238095238,
        "p25_non_tad": 86.03678929765887,
        "p25_diff": -23.227265488135068,
        "p50_tad": 89.13535536441829,
        "p50_non_tad": 217.08683473389354,
        "p50_diff": -127.95147936947525,
        "p75_tad": 225.93649993373438,
        "p75_non_tad": 550.2232142857143,
        "p75_diff": -324.28671435198,
        "p90_tad": 674.7194242828223,
        "p90_non_tad": 840.9511702922155,
        "p90_diff": -166.2317460093932,
        "pct_negative_tad": 2.2873612559023733,
        "pct_negative_non_tad": 1.1925640126271484,
        "band": "2-3 mi",
        "tad_n": 16307,
        "non_tad_n": 8553
      },
      {
        "p10_tad": 24.94671658308022,
        "p10_non_tad": 52.50631085467003,
        "p10_diff": -27.559594271589813,
        "p25_tad": 39.3380423814329,
        "p25_non_tad": 100.69656073138877,
        "p25_diff": -61.35851834995587,
        "p50_tad": 79.07514450867052,
        "p50_non_tad": 461.79017644253696,
        "p50_diff": -382.71503193386644,
        "p75_tad": 133.22916666666666,
        "p75_non_tad": 695.6957487991972,
        "p75_diff": -562.4665821325306,
        "p90_tad": 260.79706509413387,
        "p90_non_tad": 969.1755083996461,
        "p90_diff": -708.3784433055123,
        "pct_negative_tad": 2.925156344563244,
        "pct_negative_non_tad": 1.9078473722102232,
        "band": "3-4 mi",
        "tad_n": 4957,
        "non_tad_n": 11112
      },
      {
        "p10_tad": 23.944958611326815,
        "p10_non_tad": 42.04056545789797,
        "p10_diff": -18.095606846571155,
        "p25_tad": 52.9150082788243,
        "p25_non_tad": 71.94093351835346,
        "p25_diff": -19.02592523952916,
        "p50_tad": 92.48673206818913,
        "p50_non_tad": 115.33903884134298,
        "p50_diff": -22.852306773153856,
        "p75_tad": 237.5438596491228,
        "p75_non_tad": 402.7956989247312,
        "p75_diff": -165.2518392756084,
        "p90_tad": 502.9143012189015,
        "p90_non_tad": 606.1697271501193,
        "p90_diff": -103.25542593121781,
        "pct_negative_tad": 4.373236598145909,
        "pct_negative_non_tad": 1.533677664172025,
        "band": "4-6 mi",
        "tad_n": 4962,
        "non_tad_n": 18974
      }
    ]
  },
  "regression_discontinuity": {
    "bins": [
      {
        "range_mi": [
          -1,
          -0.5
        ],
        "label": "1.00\u20130.50 mi INSIDE",
        "side": "INSIDE",
        "median_growth": 324.4,
        "n": 32
      },
      {
        "range_mi": [
          -0.5,
          -0.25
        ],
        "label": "0.50\u20130.25 mi INSIDE",
        "side": "INSIDE",
        "median_growth": 79.7,
        "n": 994
      },
      {
        "range_mi": [
          -0.25,
          0
        ],
        "label": "0.25\u20130.00 mi INSIDE",
        "side": "INSIDE",
        "median_growth": 108.1,
        "n": 7890
      },
      {
        "range_mi": [
          0,
          0.25
        ],
        "label": "0.00\u20130.25 mi OUTSIDE",
        "side": "OUTSIDE",
        "median_growth": 186.9,
        "n": 6064
      },
      {
        "range_mi": [
          0.25,
          0.5
        ],
        "label": "0.25\u20130.50 mi OUTSIDE",
        "side": "OUTSIDE",
        "median_growth": 123.4,
        "n": 2594
      },
      {
        "range_mi": [
          0.5,
          1
        ],
        "label": "0.50\u20131.00 mi OUTSIDE",
        "side": "OUTSIDE",
        "median_growth": 84.5,
        "n": 1933
      },
      {
        "range_mi": [
          1,
          2
        ],
        "label": "1.00\u20132.00 mi OUTSIDE",
        "side": "OUTSIDE",
        "median_growth": 96.6,
        "n": 493
      }
    ],
    "boundary_test": {
      "inside_median": 108.1,
      "outside_median": 186.9,
      "inside_n": 7890,
      "outside_n": 6064,
      "diff": -78.7,
      "diff_ci": [
        -93.2,
        -64.7
      ],
      "p_value": 0.0,
      "interpretation": "If difference \u2248 0 or TAD side is lower, there is no discontinuous 'jump' at the TAD boundary \u2014 inconsistent with TADs causing growth."
    }
  },
  "sensitivity_analysis": [
    {
      "tolerances": "\u00b10.25mi, \u00b125% val, \u00b150% size",
      "n_pairs": 1483,
      "tad_median": 93.7,
      "non_tad_median": 105.3,
      "diff": -11.5
    },
    {
      "tolerances": "\u00b10.5mi, \u00b150% val, \u00b175% size",
      "n_pairs": 1698,
      "tad_median": 92.5,
      "non_tad_median": 108.0,
      "diff": -15.5
    },
    {
      "tolerances": "\u00b10.75mi, \u00b175% val, \u00b1100% size",
      "n_pairs": 1804,
      "tad_median": 94.3,
      "non_tad_median": 111.1,
      "diff": -16.8
    },
    {
      "tolerances": "\u00b11.0mi, \u00b1100% val, \u00b1150% size",
      "n_pairs": 1892,
      "tad_median": 94.3,
      "non_tad_median": 111.1,
      "diff": -16.8
    }
  ],
  "class_changes": {
    "same_class": 105086,
    "changed_class": 1943,
    "pct_changed": 1.8,
    "note": "Parcels with class changes may show growth from rezoning/redevelopment, not pure appreciation. Results should be robust with or without them."
  },
  "methodology_notes": {
    "bootstrap": "10,000 iterations, seed=42, 95% percentile CI",
    "mann_whitney": "Two-tailed rank-sum test (normal approximation)",
    "regression_discontinuity": "Signed distance from nearest TAD boundary; negative = inside TAD",
    "sensitivity": "Varied matching tolerances from tight to very loose; finding consistent"
  }
}